Kaliningrad standoff could reveal if Russia wants to ‘escalate’

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Last Saturday, Lithuania forbade transit goods worn by European Union sanctions through its territory to Russia Excave Kaliningrad, which is in the Baltic Sea and around 1,300 km (800 miles) from Moscow.

Lithuania said the move was in line with European sanctions. Angry, Moscow called him “blockade” and promised to respond.

Prohibited goods including coal, metal, construction materials and sophisticated technology, which are 50 percent of Kaliningrad’s imports, according to the Governor in the region, Anton ALIKHANOV.

Russia has demanded restrictions revoked, slamming Lithuania’s actions as “openly hostile” to Kaliningrad.

Maintained between members of the EU and NATO Poland and Lithuania, the region received supplies from Russia through the railroad and gas pipelines through Lithuania.

Kaliningrad was part of Germany until the end of World War II, when given to the Soviet Union at the Potsdam Conference in 1945. The western state of Russia had around 1 million inhabitants, especially Russia but also a small number of Ukraine, Poland and Lithuanians.

And critically, it is basically considered a Russian military base. The exact number of soldiers placed there is unknown; Estimates range from 9,000 to 200,000 military personnel.

Increased tension triggers concerns over the gaps of Suwałki, 80 km (50 miles) soil corridors across southeast of Poland and Lithuania, which are very important for the safety of Baltic countries because they can connect Kaliningrad and Belarus Russia.

Al Jazeera spoke with Agnia Grigas, a senior and energy and geopolitical expert in the Atlantic Council, regarding the situation in Kaliningrad, the possibility of his implications in the war in Ukraine, and the future of the region.

Agnia Grigas: This is certainly not merely Lithuania’s decision, but a decision made in Brussels to impose sanctions on the transit of certain Russian goods through the European Union.

Now, the fact is that Lithuania is the only country in the European Union, where transit of this item occurs regularly from mainland Russia through Belarus, through Lithuania to Russia Kaliningrad’s pocket. You can argue that Lithuania can seek exceptions because some European Union countries have sought exceptions from various elements of Russian sanctions. On the one hand, Lithuania made a decision not to seek exceptions from sanctions.